5.18.17 — This week’s #TBT is titled, “CMO Or SCHMO? Clinging To Old Marketing Models May Be Hurting Rather Than Helping Drive Growth.” I posted this on Forbes.com on 12/19/16. The article is timely in light of several recent developments: Coke’s decision to eliminate the CMO position, lawsuits filed against Google and and Facebook over phony metrics or fraudulent clicks, and the announced decreases in ad budgets by P&G and Unilever.
I detailed in the article how the Coke CMO told a conference that his firm received a return on every dollar spent of $1.26 for digital and $2.13 for TV. I questioned these figures, and now I question whether he should have made the presentation to the CEO of Coke and their board to save his position. Perhaps he did and they weren’t buying those metrics either.
I end with the advice for marketers to move beyond old measurements and models, steer clear of theoretical attribution models and focus on real consumer analytics. Hopefully this message is getting though to some.
Consumer confidence continues to fluctuate, but remains well above the 13 month average. What does it mean for spending? Deborah Weinswig, Managing Director of Fung Global Retail & Technology, weighs in on consumer confidence, spending, and autos.
Prosper Consumer Confidence: Post-election economic sentiment continues to fluctuate: in April 53.7% report that they are confident/very confident, down four points from March. Despite declining month over month, sentiment is tracking 15%+ higher year over year and remains well above the 13 month average (47.8%). At 68.4%, confidence among small business owners is also down from last month (72.0%). “One month does not a trend make and we would look at the substantial year over year increases in these metrics as a bullish sign for the US economy. Continue reading…
Today’s Throwback Thursday article “Big Data And The Madness Of Crowds” was written for Forbes.com on 6/17/2014. The context deals with the madness of crowds, which was the topic of a book written by Charles Mackay in 1841. Mackay wrote of the crowd psychology that drives numerous “national delusions.” Among the various manias were the tulip bubble of the 17th century, witch mania of the 16th and 17th centuries, and alchemists who sought to turn base metals to gold.
The problem with crowd psychology is that it created an emotional feedback loop, whereby dissent is often stifled by the crowd. This article counseled about not becoming victim of big data mania and its magic wand solutions. The reader was advised that “the value of big data is in analytics that are specifically designed for your business.” Isn’t that where we are today?
Consumer confidence is at a 15-year high and Prosper’s Impulsivity Score and Consumer Mood metric are up as well. Deborah Weinswig, Managing Director of Fung Global Retail & Technology, weighs in on the state of the US consumer with the arrival of the spring shopping season.
Prosper Consumer Confidence: Heading into spring, sentiment climbs 7+ points m/m to 57.8% who are confident/very confident in the economy in March. This month’s reading represents a 15-year high (March 2002 = 61.1%). At 72.0%, confidence among small business owners is up from last month (62.2%). “The glass is certainly half full in 2017, based on Prosper’s confidence indicator among both consumers and small business owners. With optimism riding higher, we could see continue reading…
March 30, 2017: Today’s Throwback Thursday article is “David Vs. Goliath: Why Little Data Will Win Over Big Data” from my Forbes.com column on May 29, 2014. The issues discussed concerning big data are now apparent today. In the Internet data scraping world, numerous marketers are now disillusioned by the hype about the quintillions of unstructured big data bits filled with bot fraud, unverifiable assumptions, unknowable demographic representations, and privacy issues. Forget the size of the data and focus first on the business issues/challenges cautions the article. Second, seek out the relevant data to better understand the business issues/challenges. Finally, apply advanced analytic processes to the relevant data to empower executives to make better evidence-based decisions to manage challenges.
Brick-and-mortar stores—which include discount stores, specialty stores and department stores—remain the main channel at which surveyed men most often purchase menswear, for a total share of 78.3% as of June 2016.
The majority of surveyed men have purchased menswear online, with 67.0% having done so in June 2016. However, those who do over half of their menswear shopping online remained a small minority, representing only 14.8% of surveyed men, whereas those buying most often online was a niche segment, at 2.6%.
The number of Amazon menswear customers has doubled over the past five years―23.4% of those surveyed bought menswear at the online retailer in the three months prior to June 2016, up from 9.4% in June 2011. However, those buying menswear most often at Amazon remained a niche segment, with a share of 2.1% in June 2016.
Amazon, Kohl’s and Walmart appeal to price-sensitive customers―over 85% of their customers cite price as the reason they shop there. Macy’s positioning differs slightly, in that it has an edge on selection and style compared to the other top retailers.
March 24, 2017: Today’s Throwback Thursday article I wrote for my Forbes.com blog on May 15, 2014. The title of the article was “I’ve Got A Secret: The Real Big Data Opportunity”.
The article references an old TV Show, I’ve Got a Secret, and advises senior management to look beyond programmatic ad platform applications for big data and to seek more valuable strategic applications. Such applications have less to do with the “bigness” of the data, but rather should focus on the accuracy and relevance of data to provide answers for better decision making.
Deborah Weinswig, a top-ranked global retail analyst who writes about retail and tech, recently authored “The ‘Recycling’ Of Department-Store Shoppers — And Why Amazon Could Gain From Macy’s Closures” for Forbes.com. In the article, Deborah uses unique consumer insights from Prosper Insights & Analytics to show how Macy’s store closures will benefit Amazon. This article is timely for anyone in the retail industry and we think you will enjoy it.
March 16, 2017: “Is Mass Hysteria Driving The Big Data Market?” is the title of today’s Throwback Thursday article which was published on May 5, 2015 on Forbes.com.
In the rush towards anything to do with big data, many suffered temporary symptoms of hysteria, characterized by excitement, anxiety or irrational behavior, or beliefs in which many cases led to big data disillusionment.
The article advises a focus on identifying meaningful findings from relevant data for better informed business decisions by senior management. Are many experiencing similar hysteria to when it comes to big data driven analytics?